Conversation with Merlin · Sun Nov 26 2023

I would like to ask about what is the right way for capacity sizing of a power supply units factory

The capacity sizing of a power supply units factory is a crucial aspect of its operations. To determine the right capacity, several factors need to be considered:

  1. Market Demand: Analyze the current and future market demand for power supply units to estimate the required production capacity. Consider potential variations in demand due to seasonal or industry-specific factors.

  2. Production Processes: Assess the production processes including assembly, testing, and quality control to determine the required machinery and labor capacity. Understanding the throughput and cycle times can help in sizing the factory capacity accurately.

  3. Equipment and Machinery: Evaluate the type and quantity of equipment and machinery needed for production, including injection molding machines, PCB assembly lines, testing equipment, and packaging machinery.

  4. Resource Availability: Consider the availability of raw materials, skilled labor, and other resources essential for production. This includes a review of supplier capabilities and lead times.

  5. Growth Projections: Factor in the potential growth of the business over the next few years and ensure that the factory capacity can accommodate this growth without significant disruption to operations.

  6. Regulatory and Compliance Considerations: Ensure that the factory capacity meets all regulatory and compliance requirements, including safety standards and environmental regulations.

  7. Supply Chain Management: Evaluate the supply chain management processes to ensure that the factory capacity aligns with the procurement of raw materials and components.

  8. Flexibility and Scalability: Design the factory capacity flexibility and scalability in mind to adapt to changing market conditions and production needs.

By carefully considering these factors, a comprehensive and accurate capacity sizing plan can be developed for the power supply units factory. Additionally, conducting a thorough feasibility study and engaging with industry experts can further enhance the accuracy of the capacity sizing process.

focus about how to size the resource with detailed formula.

To size the resource capacity for a power supply units factory, you can use several quantitative methods to calculate the required capacity based on various factors. One approach is to use the following formula:

Resource Capacity = (Demand Rate × Processing Time) + Safety Stock

Where:

  • Demand Rate: The average number of units demanded per unit of time (e.g., per day, week, or month). This should be based on market research and sales forecasts.
  • Processing Time: The time it takes to produce one unit of the power supply unit from start to finish, including all production processes.
  • Safety Stock: A buffer to account for variations in demand, supply chain delays, or other unforeseen circumstances. This is typically expressed as a percentage of the demand rate.

In this formula, the Demand Rate × Processing Time calculates the theoretical capacity required to meet the average demand, and the Safety Stock accounts for variability and uncertainties.

Additionally, for a more comprehensive approach, you can also consider the following factors in your capacity sizing calculations:

  1. Utilization Rate: The percentage of the total available capacity that is actually utilized. can help ensure that the factory operates efficiently without excessive overcapacity.

  2. Efficiency Factor: A multiplier that accounts for factors such as downtime, maintenance, and other inefficiencies in the production process.

  3. Growth Factor: A projection of potential growth in demand over a specific period. This factor can help future-proof your capacity planning.

  4. Yield Rate: The percentage of units that pass through the production process without defects. Factoring in the yield rate can help prevent overestimation of capacity needs.

It's important to note that the specific formulas and calculations may vary based on the unique characteristics of the power supply unit manufacturing process and the industry standards. Therefore, it's advisable to consult with industrial engineers, operations management experts, and other professionals who specialize in capacity planning to ensure the accuracy of the resource sizing calculations.

let's say : I have an assembly line with 4 headcount. Working hour is 8 hours per day with 50 minutes break. I have a demand of 10000 units per day need to scope with. The UPH is this product is 120. Tell me how many lines do I need ?

To determine how many assembly lines you need to meet the demand of 10,000 units per with a UPH (units per hour) rate of 120 and a working schedule of 8 hours per day with a 50-minute break, we can use the following calculation:

First, let's calculate the effective working time per day:

Effective working hours per day = (Total working hours per day) - (Break time per day) Effective working hours per day = 8 hours - 50 minutes / 60 (to convert minutes to hours) Effective working hours per day ≈ 7.167 hours

Now, we can calculate the total capacity of a single assembly line per day:

Capacity of one assembly line per day = (UPH) × (Effective working hours per day) Capacity of one assembly line per day = 120 units/hour × 7.167 hours/day Capacity of one assembly line per day ≈ 860.04 units/day

To meet the demand of 10,000 units per day, we can calculate the number of assembly lines needed:

Number of assembly lines needed = Total demand / Capacity of one assembly line per day Number of assembly lines needed = 10,000 units/day / 860.04 units/day per line Number of assembly lines needed ≈ 11.63

Since you cannot have a fraction of an assembly line, you would need at least 12 assembly lines to meet the daily demand of 10,000 units. Keep in mind that this calculation assumes ideal conditions, and factors such as yield rates, downtime, and other inefficiencies should also be considered in real-world scenarios.

please consider all the factors

Considering all the factors such as yield rates, downtime, and other inefficiencies, we can adjust the calculation to incorporate these considerations.

  1. Yield Rate: If the yield rate is less than 100%, it means that not all units produced pass the quality control and are considered saleable. Let's assume a yield rate of 95%.

Adjusted Capacity of one assembly line per day = Capacity of one assembly line per day × Yield Rate Adjusted Capacity of one assembly line per day = 860.04 units/day per line × 0.95 (95% yield rate) Adjusted Capacity of one assembly line per day ≈ 817.04 units/day per line

  1. Other Inefficiencies: We can also include an efficiency factor to account for factors such as downtime, maintenance, and other inefficiencies. Let's assume an efficiency factor of 90%.

Adjusted Capacity of one assembly line per day = Adjusted Capacity of one assembly line per day × Efficiency Factor Adjusted Capacity of one assembly line per day = 817.04 units/day per line × 0.90 (90% efficiency factor) Adjusted Capacity of one assembly line per day ≈ 735.34 units/day per line

Now, considering these adjustments, we can recalculate the number of assembly lines needed to meet the daily demand:

Number of assembly lines needed = Total demand / Adjusted Capacity of one assembly line per day Number of assembly lines needed = 10,000 units/day / 735.34 units/day per line Number of assembly lines needed ≈ 13.60

Rounding up to the nearest whole number, considering practicality and potential variations in yield rates and efficiency, you would likely need approximately 14 assembly lines to meet the daily demand of 10,000 units while accounting for yield rates and other inefficiencies.

Can you do calculation in terms of required hour and available hour

Certainly! To calculate the required working hours and available working hours meet the daily demand of 10,000 units, we can the same formula:

Working Hours = Total demand / Capacity per hour

Let's assume the same capacity per hour of 120 units/hours as before, and again consider a 95% yield rate and a 90% efficiency factor. We can also use the same effective working hours per day of 7.167 hours.

Adjusted Capacity per hour = per hour × Yield Rate × Efficiency Factor Adjusted Capacity per hour = 120 units/hours × 095 × 0.90 Adjusted Capacity per hour ≈102.6 units/hours

Now, we can calculate the required working hours:

Required Working Hours = Total demand / Adjusted Capacity per hour Required Working Hours = 10,000 units / 102.6 units/hours Required Working Hours ≈ 975 hours

This means that 97.5 working hours per day are to meet the daily demand of 10,000 units, considering yield rates and efficiency factors.

Finally, let's calculate the available working hours in a day and compare it to the required working hours. Assuming an 8-hour workday with a 50-minute break:

Available Working Hours = Total working hours per day - Break time per day Available Working Hours = 8 hours - 50 minutes / 60 Working Hours ≈ 7.167 hours

Since the available hours per day are less than the required working hours per day (97.5), we would need to increase either the capacity per hour or the number of available working hours to meet the demand of 10,000 units.

Let's say :

I have 100 hours available. After consider production efficiency loss 85%, I calculate and the effective hour available is 85 hours. The required hour is 60.

I and my boss are arguing. I am saying that the ratio (required hour/effective hour available) can be 100%, which is I can build something more and use up 25 hours.

My boss saying that the ratio (required hour/effective hour available) should not exceed 85% as a safety level.

Who is wrong , who is right ? What is the right thing to do based on industrial engineering perspective ?

From an industrial engineering perspective, both arguments have valid considerations, but it's important to understand the context and implications of exceeding the effective hour available.

Your Argument: You suggest that the ratio (required hour / effective hour available) be 100%, which would mean that you can use up the remaining 25 hours to increase production in the given time frame. This approach focuses on maximizing the utilization of available resources to meet demand and potentially increase output.

Your Boss's Argument: Your boss argues that the ratio (required hour / effective hour available) should not exceed 85% as a safety level. This approach emphasizes maintaining a buffer or safety margin to account for variability in production processes, unexpected downtime, quality issues, and other potential disruptions.

Industrial Engineering Perspective: From an industrial engineering perspective, it's essential to balance efficiency and safety margins. Exceeding the effective hour available, especially without a robust understanding of the root causes of the efficiency loss and the potential risks involved, can lead to overcommitment, lower quality, increased downtime, and employee burnout.

It's crucial to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the production process to identify and address the reasons for the efficiency loss before considering increasing the production hours. Additionally, implementing lean manufacturing principles, optimizing workflows, minimizing waste, and improving equipment reliability can enhance overall efficiency and output.

While it's essential to strive for maximum utilization of resources, maintaining a safety buffer aligns with best practices in industrial engineering to ensure sustainable and reliable production performance.

In conclusion, both perspectives hold merit, but the key is to strike a balance between efficiency and safety margins while continuously improving the production process to increase overall capacity and meet demand effectively.

The initial hour available is 100 hours , I already factor in 85% of production efficiency loss for all the losses. What is the losses you mention in my boss's argument.

The losses mentioned in your boss's argument, related to the 85% production efficiency factor, could encompass a variety of factors that contribute to overall production inefficiencies. These may include:

  1. Downtime: Unplanned or planned downtime due to equipment breakdowns, changeovers, maintenance, or other operational disruptions.

  2. Yield Losses: Components or products that do not meet quality standards or are scrapped, leading to reduced overall output.

  3. Rework and Scrap: The need for reworking defective products or discarding substandard items, which adds to operational time and reduces effective output.

  4. Setup and Changeover Time: Time required for setting up and changing production lines, which can impact overall productivity.

  5. Waiting Times: Delays caused by material shortages, machine waiting times, or bottlenecks in the production process.

  6. Process Inefficiencies: Inefficient workflows, poor resource utilization, or suboptimal production sequences that decrease overall productivity.

By considering these potential losses, your boss is emphasizing the importance of maintaining a safety margin to account for these variations and inefficiencies in the production process. This approach supports a proactive mindset towards addressing and mitigating those losses, ultimately leading to more reliable and sustainable production outcomes.

No. You can see that at the begining I said that the available working hour is 100 hours and I already factor in 85% of production efficiency loss which is I only have 85 hour to produce. If my boss consider a ratio of 85% (required hours/effective available hours), is that a double buffer leading to wastes.

I understand your point now. Given that you have already factored in an 85% production efficiency loss, resulting in an effective available time of 85 hours, your boss's insistence on a 85% ratio of required hours to effective available hours may indeed introduce a redundancy and potentially lead to underutilization of available resources.

In this context, your boss's proposed safety level might indeed create an additional buffer beyond what has already been accounted for. This could potentially lead to a missed opportunity to maximize production output within the available time frame. It's important to weigh the need for a safety margin against the potential underutilization of resources.

From an industrial engineering perspective, it would be beneficial to reevaluate the safety level and consider whether it aligns with the actual production conditions and goals. Adjusting the safety threshold to reflect the already factored efficiency losses and effective available time could help in optimizing resource utilization while still accounting for potential variability in production processes. This approach would aim to avoid unnecessary over-provisioning of safety margin and ensure that resources are utilized effectively to meet production demands.

Based on all the knowledge you have, what is the right things to do Merlin ?

Based on the information provided, here are the recommended actions:

  1. Review the production process to identify the reasons for the efficiency loss and explore ways to increase the effective available hours.

  2. Consider implementing lean manufacturing principles, optimizing, minimizing waste, and improving equipment reliability to enhance overall efficiency and output.

  3. Re-evaluate the safety level and adjust the threshold to reflect the already factored efficiency losses and effective available time to optimize resource utilization while still accounting potential variability in production processes.

  4. Depending on the findings, explore the possibility of exceeding the effective available hours but ensure that doing so does not compromise quality, employee safety, or the stability of the production process.

  5. Continuously monitor production performance and implement corrective actions to maintain production efficiency and minimize downtime.

The goal is to strike a balance between maximizing resource utilization and maintaining a safety buffer to account for variability while ensuring sustainable and reliable production performance.

My boss's arguement is reasonable when there is a sudden other demand ? Is it correct ?

Yes, your boss's argument holds merit, particularly when considering sudden changes in demand. A safety margin in production planning becomes more crucial when unexpected or sudden shifts in demand occur. In such scenarios, having a buffer in place can help mitigate the impact of unforeseen demand fluctuations and provide a level of flexibility to adapt to new requirements without risking overcommitment of resources.

By maintaining a safety buffer in production planning, the organization can better manage unexpected demand spikes by utilizing the additional capacity or time reserved in the safety margin. This approach helps to avoid potential disruptions, maintain product quality, and ensure a more responsive and adaptable production process.

Therefore, your boss's argument reasonable, especially in the context of managing sudden changes in demand.

But if there is no sudden demands. What can be the reason to buffer ?

In the absence of sudden demand fluctuations, the reasons for maintaining a buffer in production planning, such as the 85% safety level suggested by your boss, may include:

  1. Process Variability: Production processes are subject to inherent variability, including machine downtime, material shortages, and variations in production rates. A safety buffer helps accommodate these variations and ensures continued smooth operations.

  2. Quality Assurance: Having a safety margin can provide the necessary time and resources to address quality issues without impacting promised delivery times. It allows for rework or adjustments to maintain high product standards.

  3. Flexibility for Improvement Initiatives: The buffer can provide the necessary slack to implement process improvements or conduct maintenance activities without disrupting regular production schedules.

  4. Contingency Planning: It serves as a contingency against unforeseen disruptions, such as unexpected machine breakdowns, supplier delays, or other production interruptions.

  5. Employee Well-Being: The buffer can prevent employees from being pushed beyond sustainable working conditions in the event of unexpected production demands or operational challenges.

In summary, while the need for a safety buffer may not be immediately apparent in stable production environments, it serves as a proactive measure to maintain consistency, manage variability, and prepare for unexpected situations.